Half-Incubation
0xf54d9d3b1521aab595716320aa3201961cc6205d
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$132.84
Total PnL
$-26.54
Realised
$19.30
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
82 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$81.97
$31.97
- YES
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07?
36 shares @ 55.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$36.09
$16.24
- YES
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
30 shares @ 29.4¢·now 45.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.65
$4.83
- YES
Macron out by June 30, 2026?
224 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.12
$-18.88
- YES
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?
167 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?
150 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation?
67 shares @ 75.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire by June 30?$61.47Apr 7, 14:55 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?$0.00Apr 7, 14:05 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?$0.00Apr 7, 14:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?$62.32Apr 2, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?$50.00Apr 1, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation?$50.00Apr 1, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07?$20.00Mar 29, 15:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?$20.63Mar 29, 15:04 UTC
- REDEEMFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?$0.00Mar 28, 18:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?$0.00Mar 28, 18:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League?$0.00Mar 28, 18:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17?$0.00Mar 28, 18:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-07?$0.00Mar 28, 18:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?$0.00Mar 28, 18:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?$0.00Mar 28, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by June 30?$100.00Mar 28, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League?$18.53Feb 26, 14:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Japan Innovation Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?$11.11Feb 26, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-07?$19.00Feb 5, 17:02 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$0.00Feb 5, 16:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $24.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 18, 16:23 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 7, 14:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.