Doting-Referendum
0xf54e6a226fa2a203c7f65f9bf355386c5962fdc0
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$303.77
Total PnL
$-149.32
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?
166 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$165.77
$48.07
- YES
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?
138 shares @ 19.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2024$138.00
$111.78
- YES
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
2500 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Harris-Walz Democratic ticket on election day?
1996 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-120.00
- YES
Trump sentenced to 48 or more months prison time?
834 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2024$0.00
$-22.51
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting?
400 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2024$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election?
263 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Will Biden finish his term?
125 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104
120 shares @ 16.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Democrats win popular vote by 2-3%?
111 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$756.37Oct 12, 19:33 UTC
- REDEEMGPT-5 announced in Q3 2024?$0.00Oct 2, 18:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2024 Women's Chess Olympiad?$0.00Oct 2, 18:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Armenia win the 2024 Women's Chess Olympiad?$0.00Oct 2, 18:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Germany win the 2024 Women's Chess Olympiad?$0.00Oct 2, 18:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the United States win the 2024 Women's Chess Olympiad?$0.00Oct 2, 18:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill another team win the 2024 Women's Chess Olympiad?$0.00Oct 2, 18:24 UTC
- REDEEMNo change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?$0.00Sep 20, 06:19 UTC
- REDEEMPavel Durov flees France by Sep 15?$0.00Sep 18, 18:11 UTC
- REDEEMTrump and Harris shake hands at first debate?$65.22Sep 12, 19:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump launch a coin before the election?$132.97Sep 8, 12:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another team win the 2024 Women's Chess Olympiad?$15.00Sep 8, 12:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the United States win the 2024 Women's Chess Olympiad?$15.00Sep 8, 12:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win the 2024 Women's Chess Olympiad?$5.00Sep 8, 12:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win the 2024 Women's Chess Olympiad?$5.00Sep 8, 12:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Armenia win the 2024 Women's Chess Olympiad?$5.00Sep 8, 12:33 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum above $2,500 on September 6?$222.22Sep 8, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship?$848.19Sep 8, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump launch a coin before the election?$114.94Sep 4, 18:30 UTC
- REDEEMJD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?$0.00Sep 4, 18:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $132.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 22:36 UTC
- Last active
- Oct 12, 19:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".