Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-17.2K

Realised

$-577.34

Win rate

174 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET
700 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-371.17
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
663 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-278.40
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
647 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026
$0.00
$-329.93
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
637 shares @ 50.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026
$0.00
$-324.59
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET
627 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026
$0.00
$-319.98
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
615 shares @ 51.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026
$0.00
$-317.85
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
615 shares @ 51.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026
$0.00
$-318.80
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
580 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026
$0.00
$-324.99
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
561 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026
$0.00
$-320.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET
561 shares @ 56.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026
$0.00
$-318.70

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$22.72Jul 18, 12:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$0.44Jul 18, 12:23 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$19.51Jul 18, 12:22 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$28.57Jul 18, 12:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$0.56Jul 18, 12:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$19.03Jul 18, 12:12 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$22.00Jul 18, 12:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$0.44Jul 18, 12:09 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$19.75Jul 18, 12:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$20.46Jul 18, 11:52 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$28.17Jul 18, 11:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$0.30Jul 18, 11:44 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$0.18Jul 18, 11:44 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$0.04Jul 18, 11:44 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$0.04Jul 18, 11:44 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$20.41Jul 18, 11:42 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET$22.22Jul 18, 11:41 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$22.73Jul 18, 11:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$0.15Jul 18, 11:39 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$0.29Jul 18, 11:39 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

68/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 174 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

174 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity39 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry96 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk27 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 37
Avg trade size: $6.58
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 11, 14:12 UTC
Last active: Jul 18, 12:25 UTC
Win rate sample: 174 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 02:22:03 UTC·src:Polymarket Data