Sarcastic-Pathogenesis-Opossum
0xf5aada044b90c95bc0832d903fb45d1455b7f768
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$77.74
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$-538.83
Win rate
20%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?
642 shares @ 43.1¢·now 4.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$28.57
$-248.41
- YES
Will the Cincinnati Reds have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season?
57 shares @ 34.5¢·now 42.3¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$24.08
$4.42
- YES
NBA: LeBron James and Bronny James Jr. to Play Together in 2026-27?
194 shares @ 41.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$8.63
$-70.85
- NO
Will Byron Buxton hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
12 shares @ 79.8¢·now 64.6¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$7.75
$-1.82
- YES
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season?
57 shares @ 34.5¢·now 11.6¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$6.58
$-13.08
- YES
Will the Houston Astros have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season?
57 shares @ 34.5¢·now 3.8¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$2.14
$-17.52
- YES
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?
577 shares @ 16.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-96.15
- YES
Will Brigid Duffy record the fastest shot at the 2026 WLL All-Star Skills Competition?
202 shares @ 43.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-87.72
- YES
Will Future feature Lil Yachty on "The Real Me"?
167 shares @ 63.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-106.00
- NO
Will Emily Hawryschuk record the fastest shot at the 2026 WLL All-Star Skills Competition?
119 shares @ 53.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-64.01
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill 2–3 of these AIPAC endorsees lose their primaries?$250.01Aug 5, 23:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$455.86Jul 20, 00:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$85.83Jul 20, 00:20 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$9.74Jul 8, 00:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$704.62Jul 7, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$0.02Jul 7, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$0.04Jul 7, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$0.10Jul 7, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$0.28Jul 7, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$0.80Jul 7, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$0.78Jul 7, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$1.01Jul 7, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$0.75Jul 7, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$0.78Jul 7, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$0.02Jul 7, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$0.10Jul 7, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$0.77Jul 7, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$0.75Jul 7, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$0.40Jul 7, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$0.26Jul 7, 09:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $0.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 09:11 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 5, 23:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.