Embellished-Deformation
0xf5c756a81f68100f0565d87a2729a1a7f689db97
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
88
Open notional
$24.75
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$-147.29
Win rate
17%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 88- UP
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 13?
25 shares @ 94.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$24.75
$1.27
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
1119 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-5.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 27?
1071 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on January 23?
1006 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-10.03
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 23?
1003 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-16.98
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on January 23?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on January 23?
1000 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-80.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on January 23?
999 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?
700 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-22.42
- UP
XRP Up or Down - January 26, 1AM ET
320 shares @ 89.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-287.72
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 13?$23.53Apr 12, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 9?$20.00Apr 9, 05:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 9?$20.00Apr 9, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 8?$2.00Apr 8, 04:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 7?$5.00Apr 7, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 5?$5.00Apr 5, 04:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 4?$5.00Apr 4, 05:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4?$7.33Apr 4, 05:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4?$4.13Apr 4, 05:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4?$24.81Apr 4, 05:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4?$4.13Apr 4, 05:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4?$10.18Apr 4, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4?$50.00Apr 4, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?$5.00Apr 3, 09:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 2?$40.24Apr 2, 07:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 2?$10.00Apr 2, 03:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 2?$2.82Apr 2, 03:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 2?$10.00Apr 2, 01:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 2?$10.00Apr 1, 14:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 1?$72.70Apr 1, 06:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $21.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 19, 01:40 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 12, 16:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.