0xf5dff032938e4160512e675d33dd4ec873802400
0xf5dff032938e4160512e675d33dd4ec873802400
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
44
Open notional
$32.63
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$-168.47
Win rate
44%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 44- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $107,000 on August 29 at 8PM ET?
18 shares @ 86.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 30, 2025$17.99
$2.43
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,275 on August 29 at 8PM ET?
9 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 30, 2025$9.02
$1.17
- YES
Will Joe Biden be named in newly released Epstein files?
6 shares @ 11.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$5.62
$5.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in December?
1640 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2024$0.00
$-410.00
- YES
Ethereum above $4900 on September 3?
1054 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 3, 2025$0.00
$-60.69
- YES
Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address?
840 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2025$0.00
$-69.90
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December?
763 shares @ 53.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2024$0.00
$-410.00
- NO
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?
522 shares @ 24.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2024$0.00
$-128.85
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in December?
275 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2024$0.00
$-60.50
- YES
Ethereum above $5000 on September 3?
185 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 3, 2025$0.00
$-6.48
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.