Stiff-Manipulation
0xf5f5f3f47abfcf8f05e8f57647327352c7c3700c
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
45
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 15?
1000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15?
507 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET
436 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-148.11
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET
408 shares @ 24.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-99.21
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
322 shares @ 30.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-98.87
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET
317 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-14.99
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
217 shares @ 45.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-98.46
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET
212 shares @ 46.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-98.45
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
199 shares @ 49.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-98.44
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on June 15?$5.17Jun 14, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15?$2.13Jun 14, 16:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15?$1.07Jun 14, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 15?$1.07Jun 14, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15?$2.14Jun 14, 16:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15?$1.59Jun 14, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 15?$4.28Jun 14, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15?$2.14Jun 14, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15?$1.51Jun 14, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on June 14?$10.00Jun 14, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?$5.15Jun 14, 15:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?$36.67Jun 13, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?$1.03Jun 13, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14?$3.21Jun 13, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14?$1.07Jun 13, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on June 14?$5.17Jun 13, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?$1.03Jun 13, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14?$1.07Jun 13, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?$3.07Jun 13, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYSweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?$5.15Jun 13, 20:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $8.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 23, 17:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 16:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.