Mature-Dialect
0xf5f64a728afcb2a4cd943622a218e6b2febf4498
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-570.17
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?
611 shares @ 68.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025$0.00
$-420.17
- YES
Will Donald Trump say "Hezbollah" during Syria President events on November 10?
71 shares @ 70.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 10, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump say "Abraham Accords" during Syria President events on November 10?
69 shares @ 87.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 10, 2025$0.00
$-60.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump say "Israel / Gaza" 6+ times during Syria President events on November 10?
53 shares @ 75.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 10, 2025$0.00
$-40.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?$420.17Nov 14, 06:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the government shutdown end November 12?$0.00Nov 13, 12:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the government shutdown end November 12?$100.00Nov 12, 14:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 12+ times during Syria President events on November 10?$32.26Nov 11, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 12+ times during Syria President events on November 10?$20.00Nov 10, 00:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump say "Israel / Gaza" 6+ times during Syria President events on November 10?$40.00Nov 8, 16:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump say "Abraham Accords" during Syria President events on November 10?$60.00Nov 8, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump say "Hezbollah" during Syria President events on November 10?$50.00Nov 8, 16:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Joe Biden say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during his appearance at the Ben Nelson Gala on November 7?$24.05Nov 8, 10:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Joe Biden say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during his appearance at the Ben Nelson Gala on November 7?$20.00Nov 8, 02:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Middle East" during C5+1 Summit on November 6?$2.85Nov 7, 23:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?$104.17Nov 7, 23:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "NATO" during Hungary PM events on November 7?$24.69Nov 7, 23:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Putin" during Hungary PM events on November 7?$24.10Nov 7, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "NATO" during Hungary PM events on November 7?$20.00Nov 7, 05:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Putin" during Hungary PM events on November 7?$20.00Nov 7, 05:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during C5+1 Summit on November 6?$38.42Nov 7, 05:24 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10PM ET$0.00Nov 7, 05:24 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10PM ET$0.00Nov 7, 05:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10PM ET$1.00Nov 7, 03:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $146.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 2, 15:09 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 14, 06:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.