Wallet digest

active

Activity score

42/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$17.92

Total PnL

$-29.52

Realised

$32.56

Win rate

37 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 60

OVER
FC Sion vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 4.5
6 shares @ 18.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026
$5.55
$4.55
OVER
Panathinaikós AO vs. FC Hradec Králové: O/U 1.5
2 shares @ 44.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026
$2.27
$1.27
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026
$2.00
$1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026
$2.00
$1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026
$2.00
$1.00
NO
Will FC Nordsjælland vs. FC St. Gallen end in a draw?
1 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026
$1.18
$0.18
NO
Will SK Rapid Wien win on 2026-08-20?
1 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026
$1.06
$0.06
OVER
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 4.5
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026
$0.80
$-0.20
OVER
Atalanta BC vs. MH Hapoel Tel Aviv: O/U 0.5
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 20, 2026
$0.50
$-0.50
HNK HAJDUK SPLIT
Spread: HNK Hajduk Split (-1.5)
6 shares @ 16.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026
$0.34
$-0.66

Recent activity

TRADEBUYRangers FC vs. FK Jablonec: O/U 1.5$1.05Aug 20, 20:29 UTC
TRADEBUYAtalanta BC vs. MH Hapoel Tel Aviv: O/U 0.5$1.06Aug 20, 20:22 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: HNK Hajduk Split (-1.5)$1.05Aug 20, 20:20 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$2.00Aug 20, 20:11 UTC
TRADEBUYWill SK Rapid Wien win on 2026-08-20?$1.01Aug 20, 20:08 UTC
SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$2.00Aug 20, 20:06 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$2.00Aug 20, 20:01 UTC
REDEEMCincinnati Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Jessica Pegula$2.00Aug 20, 19:56 UTC
SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$2.00Aug 20, 19:56 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$2.00Aug 20, 19:46 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Atalanta BC win on 2026-08-20?$1.03Aug 20, 19:45 UTC
TRADEBUYPanathinaikós AO vs. FC Hradec Králové: O/U 1.5$1.04Aug 20, 19:41 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$2.00Aug 20, 19:41 UTC
SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$2.00Aug 20, 19:41 UTC
TRADEBUYWill K. Sint-Truidense VV win on 2026-08-20?$1.02Aug 20, 19:41 UTC
SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$2.00Aug 20, 19:36 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$2.00Aug 20, 19:36 UTC
TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox$1.03Aug 20, 19:36 UTC
TRADEBUYHNK Hajduk Split vs. RKS Raków Częstochowa: O/U 4.5$1.05Aug 20, 19:36 UTC
TRADEBUYSport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 4.5$1.03Aug 20, 19:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

58/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

3% win rate over 37 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

20 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

37 closed markets, 3% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity63 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry35 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk30 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 20
Avg trade size: $1.04
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 20, 01:59 UTC
Last active: Aug 20, 20:29 UTC
Win rate sample: 37 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 20:46:16 UTC·src:Polymarket Data