Noisy-Downturn
0xf604185f7bba24db3b8330ba5c1bd718ed6497a6
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
62
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-256.26
Realised
$0.41
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 62- YES
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
458 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
318 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
263 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
231 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
218 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
131 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Drone" this week? (March 15)
121 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
112 shares @ 22.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,200 on the final trading day of February 2026?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Challengers #1 Playoffs$0.00Apr 15, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Challengers #1 Playoffs$32.55Apr 13, 02:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "G20" this week? (March 8)$0.00Apr 13, 02:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the total number of TSA passengers for March 2 - March 8 be less than 15,500,000?$0.00Apr 13, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?$5.00Mar 31, 23:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?$17.54Mar 31, 23:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?$17.99Mar 31, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?$10.00Mar 31, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?$10.00Mar 31, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?$10.00Mar 31, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?$10.00Mar 31, 13:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?$42.02Mar 21, 14:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?$0.00Mar 21, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?$55.70Mar 20, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?$10.00Mar 20, 13:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?$9.30Mar 19, 15:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?$17.00Mar 19, 15:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?$19.72Mar 19, 15:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 1?$0.00Mar 19, 15:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 1?$0.00Mar 19, 15:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $14.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 12, 13:00 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 15, 14:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.