Wallet digest

active

Activity score

54/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-19.6K

Realised

$-26.47

Win rate

67%

3 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
1610 shares @ 15.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026
$0.00
$-243.45
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
1598 shares @ 16.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026
$0.00
$-259.98
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
1260 shares @ 17.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026
$0.00
$-223.48
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
961 shares @ 6.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026
$0.00
$-61.17
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET
959 shares @ 24.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026
$0.00
$-237.65
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
905 shares @ 32.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026
$0.00
$-296.54
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET
884 shares @ 14.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026
$0.00
$-132.11
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
800 shares @ 31.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026
$0.00
$-252.17
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
660 shares @ 33.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026
$0.00
$-219.33
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET
635 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026
$0.00
$-35.99

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$164.41Jul 6, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$119.59Jul 5, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$108.95Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$151.13Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$115.31Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$298.04Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$227.21Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$213.90Jun 29, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$270.78Jun 28, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$216.64Jun 27, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$84.47Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$128.74Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$70.52Jun 24, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$101.24Jun 23, 14:57 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$48.25Jun 23, 00:15 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$77.50Jun 23, 00:14 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$101.01Jun 23, 00:14 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$47.73Jun 23, 00:13 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$71.53Jun 23, 00:13 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$31.65Jun 23, 00:13 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

24/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

67% win rate over 3 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

16 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity59 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence10 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry50 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk48 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 16
Avg trade size: $10.21
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 17, 18:23 UTC
Last active: Jul 6, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 3 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 00:26:13 UTC·src:Polymarket Data