Direct-Plywood
0xf64a4fc23c30537ec6b37ae392db71c21438db74
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
96
Open notional
$7.85
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-57.19
Win rate
32%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 96- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 9?
13 shares @ 44.1¢·now 57.6¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$7.49
$1.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 9?
1 shares @ 10.0¢·now 26.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.36
$0.22
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 6?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 5?
199 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-117.59
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 10?
191 shares @ 87.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-167.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 5?
143 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.43
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 18?
133 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-16.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 23?
127 shares @ 74.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-94.82
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 5?
115 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.26
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on March 18?
102 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 9?$3.68Jul 9, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 9?$2.21Jul 9, 02:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 9?$4.58Jul 9, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 9?$0.15Jul 9, 01:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 9?$0.02Jul 9, 00:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 9?$2.03Jul 8, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 9?$2.09Jul 8, 20:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 9?$0.29Jul 8, 19:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 9?$3.70Jul 8, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 9?$3.41Jul 8, 07:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 9?$1.17Jul 8, 07:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 8?$19.91Jul 8, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 8?$9.64Jul 8, 05:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 8?$4.08Jul 8, 05:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 8?$17.55Jul 8, 05:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 8?$2.64Jul 8, 04:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 8?$2.66Jul 8, 04:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 8?$2.90Jul 8, 04:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 8?$12.69Jul 8, 04:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 8?$3.05Jul 8, 03:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
32% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
31 closed markets, 32% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $5.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 04:39 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 02:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.