Pale-Relief
0xf64fd6a4ad038f85d24efc4a63254db2172b3091
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$116.48
Total PnL
$-487.32
Realised
$0.93
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?
116 shares @ 93.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$116.48
$7.78
- NO
Will Bernie Sanders say "Putin" during "Fighting Oligarchy" speech on September 1?
352 shares @ 85.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2025$0.00
$-300.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
161 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 10, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model on September 30?
141 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Hottest country" during the UK state banquet on September 17?
91 shares @ 82.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-75.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Globalist" or "Globalism" during address to UN General Assembly on September 23?
69 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 23, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Hottest country" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?
58 shares @ 69.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 21, 2025$0.00
$-40.00
- NO
Will Netanyahu say "Israel" 50+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?
50 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 26, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
45 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 10, 2025$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Bernie Sanders say "Bezos" during his West Virginia speech on August 8?
42 shares @ 71.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2025$0.00
$-30.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31?$50.00Jan 1, 23:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Bibi" or "Israel" this week? (December 22 - 28)$6.76Dec 29, 12:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Jesus Christ" this week? (December 22 - 28)$10.66Dec 29, 12:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 22 - 28)$27.64Dec 29, 12:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Jesus Christ" this week? (December 22 - 28)$5.00Dec 28, 23:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 22 - 28)$11.40Dec 28, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" during Ukraine President events on December 28?$5.00Dec 28, 12:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 27?$20.00Dec 28, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 27?$19.86Dec 27, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 22 - 28)$5.00Dec 27, 11:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Jesus Christ" this week? (December 22 - 28)$5.00Dec 27, 11:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Bibi" or "Israel" this week? (December 22 - 28)$5.00Dec 26, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 22 - 28)$5.00Dec 26, 19:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?$26.01Dec 12, 01:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 13?$176.69Dec 12, 01:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 31?$628.63Dec 12, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 13?$48.60Dec 11, 12:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 13?$25.00Dec 11, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 31?$49.20Dec 11, 11:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 13?$49.05Dec 11, 08:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $47.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 10, 11:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 1, 23:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".