Mature-Secrecy
0xf66c6583ecec9fb3929e85804db22eea2be258b9
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
43
Open notional
$183.75
Total PnL
$-2.5K
Realised
$-540.46
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- YES
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
400 shares @ 25.0¢·now 24.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$96.00
$-4.00
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
10033 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$85.28
$-14.72
- YES
Trump out as President by July 31?
3679 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.84
$-18.16
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
1265 shares @ 7.9¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.63
$-99.37
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?
5900 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-158.99
- YES
Will MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva win on 2026-07-21?
3121 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-148.42
- YES
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2193 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
1641 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?
1282 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$100.00Jul 31, 15:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$100.00Jul 31, 15:29 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?$43.44Jul 30, 00:56 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$79.34Jul 30, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$117.00Jul 24, 15:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad win on 2026-07-23?$31.39Jul 23, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYHamburg European Open: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Leyre Romero Gormaz$10.46Jul 23, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva win on 2026-07-21?$1.05Jul 21, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva win on 2026-07-21?$11.54Jul 21, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva win on 2026-07-21?$90.58Jul 21, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva win on 2026-07-21?$52.12Jul 21, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYKF Víkingur vs. MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva: O/U 0.5$3.13Jul 21, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?$116.87Jul 20, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$20.90Jul 19, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-19?$104.23Jul 19, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-19?$103.74Jul 19, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Argentina?$52.30Jul 19, 18:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?$100.00Jul 19, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?$100.00Jul 19, 16:58 UTC
- REDEEMFrance to score first vs. England?$0.00Jul 18, 23:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $120.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 22:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 15:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.