Shocking-Captain
0xf671dc2126b64b433c44180feab09cbcb6a9fbde
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-116.74
Realised
$12.73
Win rate
82%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?
2010 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 19?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round?
1188 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win less than 10% of votes in the first round?
1138 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 19?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 19?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 20?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 20?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 14% and 16% of votes in the first round?
913 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$3.16Mar 27, 02:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Too late" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$4.44Mar 27, 02:48 UTC
- REDEEMUS government shutdown Saturday?$20.72Feb 4, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS government shutdown Saturday?$2.00Jan 31, 03:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS government shutdown Saturday?$16.00Jan 31, 03:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$0.00Jan 28, 03:41 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$14.55Jan 28, 03:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$12.00Jan 28, 03:28 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET$6.51Jan 28, 03:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET$6.00Jan 27, 17:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be 14 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend?$2.01Jan 27, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?$4.88Jan 27, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?$8.16Jan 27, 17:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 14 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend?$2.00Jan 26, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 14 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend?$1.00Jan 26, 23:42 UTC
- TRADESELLUS government shutdown Saturday?$2.48Jan 26, 23:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?$0.00Jan 26, 23:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be 6-8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?$0.00Jan 26, 23:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be 4-6 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?$0.00Jan 26, 23:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be less than 4 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?$0.00Jan 26, 23:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
82% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $3.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 23, 23:40 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 27, 02:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.