Monstrous-Brushfire
0xf6846940ce467318d811174fea4ad1e290136d2c
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
112
Open notional
$1.12
Total PnL
$-146.13
Realised
$-1.05
Win rate
46%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 112- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET
1 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.12
$0.12
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET
93 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-0.93
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
74 shares @ 7.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.28
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
50 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
50 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$1.01Jun 30, 10:14 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$0.79Jun 30, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$1.01Jun 30, 10:13 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$0.58Jun 30, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$1.02Jun 30, 10:05 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$2.97Jun 30, 09:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$4.08Jun 30, 09:47 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$1.22Jun 30, 09:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$1.02Jun 30, 09:41 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$4.49Jun 30, 09:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$4.08Jun 30, 09:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$4.39Jun 30, 09:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$4.08Jun 30, 09:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$5.05Jun 30, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$4.07Jun 30, 09:16 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$4.24Jun 30, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$4.10Jun 30, 09:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$1.02Jun 30, 09:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$1.00Jun 30, 09:13 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$0.62Jun 30, 09:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
46% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $2.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 29, 10:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 30, 10:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.