Paltry-Tell-Checkroom
0xf69ee0cf3d4c1eb661c7dc73a7b1e3f8a27175d7
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
87
Open notional
$60.70
Total PnL
$-843.40
Realised
$-13.30
Win rate
0%
86 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 87- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 21?
66 shares @ 96.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$60.70
$-2.30
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 18?
608 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-46.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on August 18?
608 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-46.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on August 18?
608 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-46.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on August 18?
608 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-46.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on August 18?
608 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-46.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on August 18?
608 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-46.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 18?
608 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-46.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 18?
608 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-46.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on August 18?
608 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-46.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 21?$63.13Aug 19, 18:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 21?$63.68Aug 19, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 21?$73.94Aug 19, 17:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 20?$74.25Aug 19, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 20?$6.04Aug 19, 05:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 19?$5.70Aug 19, 02:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 20?$60.30Aug 18, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 19?$5.04Aug 18, 15:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$2.59Aug 18, 15:32 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$2.43Aug 18, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$3.08Aug 18, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$3.10Aug 18, 15:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 19?$5.24Aug 18, 11:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 19?$5.42Aug 18, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 19?$5.25Aug 18, 10:40 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$3.26Aug 18, 09:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$3.02Aug 18, 09:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 19?$20.89Aug 18, 09:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 19?$25.74Aug 18, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 19?$25.11Aug 18, 06:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 86 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
86 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $181.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 13, 17:16 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 18:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 86 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.