Wary-Thinking
0xf6a4652968e64968b1141422b20a2bccc1d7f692
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$270.62
Total PnL
$-836.26
Realised
$-19.79
Win rate
33%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- NO
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
1014 shares @ 19.7¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$116.58
$-83.42
- YES
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
201 shares @ 51.2¢·now 50.5¢·exp Oct 24, 2027$101.40
$-1.50
- NO
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
60 shares @ 85.9¢·now 86.7¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$52.43
$0.47
- YES
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
421 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.21
$-79.79
- YES
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 10?
2276 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election?
1820 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-27.20
- YES
Will José Antonio Kast win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?
1056 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-50.22
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 5-11?
891 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?
400 shares @ 11.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-46.40
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
329 shares @ 38.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-126.51
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Czechia win on 2026-06-11?$30.60Jun 10, 18:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$151.83Jun 8, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$30.93Jun 8, 17:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?$30.12Jun 8, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$123.66Jun 8, 10:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?$124.28Jun 8, 10:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$140.60Jun 8, 10:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$140.97Jun 7, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$32.81Jun 5, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$67.14Jun 4, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$23.71Jun 4, 16:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$102.94Jun 3, 11:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$225.04Jun 3, 11:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$15.44Jun 3, 11:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$16.32May 31, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYRoland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic$36.46May 29, 18:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$36.51May 29, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYRoland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic$22.28May 29, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neymar play in the World Cup?$92.16May 28, 20:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$112.30May 28, 20:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $63.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 8, 10:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 10, 18:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.