Modern-Waistband
0xf6b070300ecd376169c62f9b0664c4996b33b2cd
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$25.69
Total PnL
$-10.74
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
9 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$8.81
$0.01
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?
6 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$5.80
$-0.00
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in July?
3 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$3.12
$0.02
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in July?
3 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$2.60
$0.00
- NO
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in July?
2 shares @ 99.7¢·now 97.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.96
$-0.04
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in July?
2 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.70
$0.00
- NO
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
2 shares @ 99.3¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.69
$-0.01
- YES
Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
1400 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-1.40
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?
1230 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-1.23
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?
1200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2025$0.00
$-1.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$1.70Jul 21, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in July?$2.00Jul 21, 04:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in July?$2.60Jul 20, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,000 in July?$1.70Jul 17, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$3.10Jul 17, 07:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,200 in July?$3.10Jul 17, 05:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$5.70Jul 17, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?$5.80Jul 11, 11:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June?$3.11Jul 1, 08:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June?$1.10Jun 30, 23:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$116.72Jun 30, 22:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?$4.41Jun 30, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June?$1.10Jun 30, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$116.60Jun 30, 03:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?$4.40Jun 27, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June?$3.10Jun 26, 10:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?$119.44May 31, 23:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?$4.61May 31, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?$119.21May 30, 13:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$4.02May 30, 07:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $34.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 5, 00:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.