0xf6b4c5b581ff1b125eef8d87b4428ee3b9474a4c
0xf6b4c5b581ff1b125eef8d87b4428ee3b9474a4c
Wallet digest
Activity score
17/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
160
Open notional
$0.50
Total PnL
$-4.0K
Realised
$-1.7K
Win rate
0%
158 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 160- YES
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$0.50
$-1.50
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
1525 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-11.39
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 22?
875 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-35.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 8?
761 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22?
752 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19?
510 shares @ 8.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-45.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19?
474 shares @ 8.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-41.45
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 9?
387 shares @ 6.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 158 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
158 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 158 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.