Juvenile-Mug
0xf703e43361751fb20eddf08e2a4cb6a1316d90f0
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$91.87
Total PnL
$-84.19
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
253 shares @ 31.6¢·now 19.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$50.22
$-29.78
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
35 shares @ 56.9¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$31.46
$11.46
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
25 shares @ 53.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$10.19
$-2.81
- GIANTS
Giants vs. Padres
133 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 27, 2025$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Samsung" or "Hyundai" during events with South Korean president on August 25?
114 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 25, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?
27 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
21 shares @ 23.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Powell say "Trump" during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?
14 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2026-02-15?
13 shares @ 38.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.