Unfinished-Fall
0xf70f16b9fc4b5eee03fce649a4bb10928ead1b9a
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-10.4K
Realised
$-145.98
Win rate
51%
37 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
149057 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-354.16
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?
2470 shares @ 30.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-745.51
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?
1530 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-398.09
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
1200 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-27.78
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?
1138 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.12
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
1110 shares @ 8.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-93.17
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
1104 shares @ 14.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-159.88
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
1101 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-11.65
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?
1101 shares @ 20.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-230.33
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
1100 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-38.82
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET$1.04Jun 30, 14:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$1.05Jun 30, 14:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$1.37Jun 30, 13:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$1.02Jun 30, 13:20 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$1.35Jun 30, 13:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$1.02Jun 30, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$1.02Jun 30, 13:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$1.39Jun 30, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$1.02Jun 30, 13:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$1.20Jun 30, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$1.01Jun 30, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$1.06Jun 30, 12:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$1.05Jun 30, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET$1.05Jun 30, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET$1.05Jun 30, 12:42 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$1.89Jun 30, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$1.03Jun 30, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?$0.55Jun 27, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?$4.16Jun 25, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?$12.94Jun 24, 02:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
51% win rate over 37 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
37 closed markets, 51% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $5.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 17:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 30, 14:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 37 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.