Tricky-Fratricide
0xf734df8f56b27a7a2fcbbc305dfc9317ba2744a4
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$13.08
Total PnL
$-161.18
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Netanyahu out by July 31?
13 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$13.08
$-0.02
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 12?
928 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.86
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
550 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in March 2026?
500 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?
500 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 11?
317 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 11?
237 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 22?
179 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 22, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 10-16?
150 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 17, 2025$0.00
$-1.20
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on December 2?
87 shares @ 99.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 2, 2025$0.00
$-87.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by July 31?$13.10Jul 18, 11:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 4?$78.08Jun 4, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 4?$78.01Jun 3, 12:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 25?$78.08May 25, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 25?$78.00May 25, 13:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets in May 2026?$77.08May 23, 01:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets in May 2026?$77.00May 22, 12:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21?$77.08May 22, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21?$77.01May 21, 10:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?$77.08May 12, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?$77.00May 10, 12:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?$77.08May 10, 12:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?$77.00May 7, 13:24 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?$77.62May 7, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?$77.00May 4, 06:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 58-59°F on May 3?$78.08May 4, 06:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?$1.15May 3, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 58-59°F on May 3?$78.00May 2, 06:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 26?$78.07May 2, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 26?$78.00Apr 25, 12:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $56.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 15, 09:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 11:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.