Whopping-Larch
0xf740d72cd42aaf45b89c281bf0863540b472d999
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-253.40
Realised
$-52.05
Win rate
51%
68 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 9?
112 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 3?
110 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.11
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 2?
100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-0.14
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8?
84 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-3.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 23?
80 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-0.43
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 23?
70 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-0.14
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 2?
65 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-0.76
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 24?
55 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-0.08
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 20?
50 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-0.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 8?
50 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.15
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or higher on July 22?$0.25Jul 22, 14:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or higher on July 22?$0.40Jul 22, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or higher on July 22?$0.01Jul 22, 12:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or higher on July 22?$0.03Jul 22, 12:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or higher on July 22?$0.08Jul 22, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or higher on July 22?$0.04Jul 22, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or higher on July 22?$0.04Jul 22, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or higher on July 22?$0.08Jul 22, 12:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or higher on July 22?$0.00Jul 22, 12:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or higher on July 22?$0.02Jul 22, 12:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 21?$0.10Jul 21, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 21?$0.06Jul 21, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 21?$0.14Jul 21, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 20?$0.06Jul 20, 15:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 20?$0.02Jul 20, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 20?$0.02Jul 20, 15:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 16?$0.07Jul 16, 17:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 16?$0.06Jul 16, 17:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 16?$0.04Jul 16, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 16?$0.01Jul 16, 14:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
51% win rate over 68 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 20/100.
68 closed markets, 51% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 15:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 14:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 68 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.