Wallet digest

active

Activity score

44/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$23.69

Total PnL

$-114.81

Realised

$-5.94

Win rate

76 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 87

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET
8 shares @ 64.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026
$7.81
$2.81
NO
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?
3 shares @ 99.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jul 1, 2027
$2.99
$-0.01
NO
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 79.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Aug 30, 2026
$2.28
$0.28
NO
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?
3 shares @ 67.5¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$2.09
$0.09
NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
27 shares @ 6.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026
$1.47
$-0.13
YES
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026
$1.06
$0.06
NO
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 92.0¢·now 97.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026
$1.05
$0.05
NO
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
1 shares @ 94.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026
$1.02
$0.02
NO
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 91.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2027
$0.98
$-0.02
NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
3 shares @ 28.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026
$0.88
$-0.09

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$6.17Aug 19, 09:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$5.18Aug 19, 09:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$5.12Aug 19, 08:56 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$0.00Aug 19, 08:54 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$20.17Aug 19, 08:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$5.28Aug 19, 08:51 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$5.23Aug 19, 08:28 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$5.14Aug 19, 08:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$5.14Aug 19, 08:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$5.14Aug 19, 08:26 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?$1.02Aug 18, 14:27 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?$1.01Aug 18, 09:25 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?$1.01Aug 18, 09:25 UTC
TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?$1.02Aug 18, 08:47 UTC
TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?$1.02Aug 18, 08:47 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?$1.01Aug 18, 08:18 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?$1.01Aug 18, 08:17 UTC
TRADESELLBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?$0.96Aug 17, 22:03 UTC
TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?$1.01Aug 17, 21:41 UTC
TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 31?$1.01Aug 17, 21:41 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

59/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 76 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

76 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity71 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry46 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk32 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 45
Avg trade size: $1.85
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 1, 13:20 UTC
Last active: Aug 19, 09:14 UTC
Win rate sample: 76 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 10:37:41 UTC·src:Polymarket Data