Wallet digest

active

Activity score

37/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$7.49

Total PnL

$-148.75

Realised

$-71.78

Win rate

33 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 40

DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
5 shares @ 23.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 22, 2026
$5.00
$3.85
YES
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
5 shares @ 48.9¢·now 49.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026
$2.49
$0.05
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
45 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026
$0.00
$-12.15
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET
15 shares @ 24.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026
$0.00
$-3.70
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET
15 shares @ 34.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-5.20
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
15 shares @ 26.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026
$0.00
$-3.98
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET
15 shares @ 24.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-3.67
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
10 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026
$0.00
$-2.80
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
10 shares @ 35.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-3.55
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET
10 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00

Recent activity

REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$0.00Jun 19, 05:11 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$0.00Jun 19, 05:11 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$1.05May 26, 05:35 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$1.15May 26, 05:35 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$0.57May 26, 05:34 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$0.48May 26, 05:34 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$1.50May 26, 05:30 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$1.95May 25, 19:03 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$2.02May 25, 19:02 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$1.73May 25, 11:57 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$1.73May 25, 11:57 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$0.06May 25, 11:57 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$1.97May 25, 11:57 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$2.10May 25, 11:57 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$2.17May 25, 11:57 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$2.40May 25, 11:57 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$1.67May 23, 13:57 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$1.30May 23, 10:39 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$1.15May 23, 03:18 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$1.15May 22, 17:28 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

59/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 33 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

18 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

33 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity32 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry63 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk40 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 18
Avg trade size: $1.45
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 22, 06:11 UTC
Last active: Jun 19, 05:11 UTC
Win rate sample: 33 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 12:07:15 UTC·src:Polymarket Data