Downright-Alder
0xf791a6b6826b1c38adcea0af000fe16c199a4865
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$3.86
Total PnL
$-22.97
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Will Russia capture Toretske by April 30, 2026?
4 shares @ 81.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$3.86
$0.73
- YES
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch?
9 shares @ 75.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-6.81
- NO
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
5 shares @ 33.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.55
- YES
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?
3 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?
3 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?
3 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31?
3 shares @ 72.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 15, 2025$0.00
$-2.01
- NO
US x Saudi security agreement by November 30?
3 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?
3 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30?
3 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Toretske by April 30, 2026?$3.13Mar 26, 23:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?$3.13Mar 26, 23:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?$2.88Feb 26, 14:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?$1.32Feb 26, 14:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?$1.56Feb 26, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYZama FDV above $400M one day after launch?$6.81Jan 28, 23:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?$1.72Jan 28, 23:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?$2.27Jan 28, 23:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?$2.27Jan 28, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?$1.00Jan 23, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?$1.00Jan 23, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?$1.00Jan 23, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?$1.00Jan 23, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?$1.00Jan 23, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?$1.00Jan 23, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?$1.00Jan 23, 14:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?$1.52Jan 23, 14:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?$1.56Jan 23, 14:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?$4.35Jan 23, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?$1.00Jan 8, 13:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $1.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 24, 22:55 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 26, 23:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.