Reflecting-Patient
0xf7b2944d43c0f6472dd3bfcfa25fb0847b80e6f2
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
55
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$1.76
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 55- NO
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?
13927 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-448.47
- NO
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the February meeting?
5331 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-245.19
- YES
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the February meeting?
2233 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-152.32
- YES
Will the US strike Iran next?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the US strike Cuba next?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the US strike Venezuela next?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the US strike Yemen next?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
824 shares @ 12.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-106.30
- YES
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 2, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 1, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 30, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 29, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 27, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
20 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $88.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 1, 06:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 00:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.