Reflecting-Waiting
0xf815bc5605bcb70be36cdb24814b100212f83140
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
50
Open notional
$0.97
Total PnL
$-209.50
Realised
$3.11
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 50- YES
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
45 shares @ 4.6¢·now 2.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.93
$-1.17
- YES
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
12 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.04
$-0.96
- YES
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during CNBC interview?
5500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 12PM ET
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 12AM ET
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 2?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 1PM ET
2100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.10
- NO
Will the US strike Somalia next?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-2.00
- RANGERS
Rangers vs. Kings
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$0.00Feb 8, 19:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$0.00Feb 8, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET$27.50Feb 8, 19:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$29.92Feb 8, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$20.00Feb 8, 18:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first?$0.00Feb 7, 11:31 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$0.05Feb 5, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMSentient FDV above $1B one day after launch?$0.00Feb 4, 21:51 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET$0.00Feb 4, 21:47 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET$0.00Feb 4, 21:47 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET$0.00Feb 4, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$17.25Feb 4, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET$15.78Feb 4, 21:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET$9.92Feb 4, 20:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET$7.92Feb 4, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET$0.84Feb 4, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET$3.64Feb 4, 19:59 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET$7.64Feb 4, 19:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6AM ET$0.00Feb 4, 19:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET$4.00Feb 4, 19:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $45.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 2, 21:53 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 8, 19:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".