Aggravating-Bustle
0xf816b644370a5a5f80eb477c735488d0dd7a9455
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-369.86
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Álvaro Roberto Ramos Chaves win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?
1962 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-135.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
1429 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?
625 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- NO
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of Costa Rica's presidential election?
488 shares @ 26.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-131.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Job" 7+ times during Fed chair announcement?
180 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Few years ago" during Fed chair announcement?
142 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Very Respected" during Fed chair announcement?
102 shares @ 8.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-8.86
- UP
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 30?
49 shares @ 20.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Very Respected" during Fed chair announcement?$8.86Jan 30, 22:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Few years ago" during Fed chair announcement?$10.00Jan 30, 22:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Job" 7+ times during Fed chair announcement?$15.00Jan 30, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of Costa Rica's presidential election?$10.00Jan 30, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 30?$10.00Jan 30, 06:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Álvaro Roberto Ramos Chaves win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?$99.00Jan 29, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?$50.00Jan 29, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Álvaro Roberto Ramos Chaves win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?$20.00Jan 29, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of Costa Rica's presidential election?$100.00Jan 29, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of Costa Rica's presidential election?$21.00Jan 27, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?$10.00Jan 27, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Álvaro Roberto Ramos Chaves win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?$16.00Jan 27, 05:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
12 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 12
- Avg trade size
- $30.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 27, 05:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 30, 22:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.