Detailed-Forearm
0xf824b4777b457eb19908bfd2a755768b3f410fda
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-17.6K
Realised
$9.43
Win rate
55%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET
2742 shares @ 28.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-791.21
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET
2602 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-77.83
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
1952 shares @ 45.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-886.18
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
1411 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$0.00
$-93.27
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
1284 shares @ 7.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-93.32
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
1253 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-93.29
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET
1242 shares @ 7.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-93.34
- MUMBAI INDIANS
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET
913 shares @ 43.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-393.78
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Croatia win on 2026-06-23?$88.24Jun 24, 01:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Croatia win on 2026-06-23?$60.58Jun 23, 22:18 UTC
- TRADESELLPortugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5$4.01Jun 23, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYPortugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5$10.20Jun 23, 17:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill United States win on 2026-06-19?$33.33Jun 19, 21:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUnited States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first?$2.06Jun 19, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United States win on 2026-06-19?$20.24Jun 19, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?$10.37Jun 18, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?$5.08Jun 18, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?$3.08Jun 18, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?$2.06Jun 18, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?$3.71Jun 18, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?$5.10Jun 18, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?$5.09Jun 18, 20:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?$16.98Jun 15, 15:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?$6.89Jun 15, 15:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?$24.85Jun 15, 14:26 UTC
- REDEEMNetherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5$20.00Jun 14, 22:30 UTC
- REDEEMNetherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5$21.74Jun 14, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?$2.70Jun 14, 22:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
55% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $13.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 6, 06:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 01:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.