Wallet digest

active

Activity score

54/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-916.58

Realised

$-8.07

Win rate

60%

10 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 78

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1AM ET
3378 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026
$0.00
$-33.78
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
52 shares @ 39.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026
$0.00
$-20.68
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10PM ET
52 shares @ 76.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026
$0.00
$-39.99
NO
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 8?
52 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026
$0.00
$-20.88
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10AM ET
48 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-10.66
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5AM ET
46 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026
$0.00
$-10.65
NO
Bitcoin above 73,400 on May 29, 4AM ET?
42 shares @ 48.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026
$0.00
$-20.17
NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17?
37 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-9.86
NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 30?
36 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-8.63
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3AM ET
36 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026
$0.00
$-10.04

Recent activity

REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 6-12?$15.83Jul 13, 04:12 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$2.02Jul 9, 21:14 UTC
REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 8?$15.85Jul 8, 16:14 UTC
REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 7?$15.96Jul 7, 16:18 UTC
REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 7?$16.09Jul 7, 16:17 UTC
REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $65,000 on July 6?$16.18Jul 7, 04:13 UTC
REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $1,850 on July 6?$15.49Jul 7, 04:13 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $65,000 on July 6?$14.56Jul 6, 15:51 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin above 62,400 on July 6, 11AM ET?$15.52Jul 6, 15:12 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin above 62,400 on July 6, 11AM ET?$14.59Jul 6, 14:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$14.67Jul 6, 13:22 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 8AM ET$16.20Jul 6, 13:12 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $64,000 on July 6?$13.82Jul 6, 13:04 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 6?$14.66Jul 6, 13:02 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on July 6?$14.52Jul 6, 12:47 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 8AM ET$14.58Jul 6, 12:08 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 6-12?$14.65Jul 6, 07:18 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $1,850 on July 6?$14.62Jul 6, 05:37 UTC
REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 29-July 5?$16.23Jul 6, 04:16 UTC
REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $65,000 on July 5?$15.34Jul 6, 04:13 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

33/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

60% win rate over 10 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity48 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence33 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry44 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk39 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 28
Avg trade size: $12.79
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 1, 07:04 UTC
Last active: Jul 13, 04:12 UTC
Win rate sample: 10 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 17:34:14 UTC·src:Polymarket Data