Paltry-Hunter
0xf83723bc01695f61f6d653eed9028ec6314abd0b
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$58.90
Total PnL
$-148.05
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
35 shares @ 86.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.62
$2.62
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
180 shares @ 16.7¢·now 11.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$20.93
$-9.07
- YES
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?
31 shares @ 49.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.36
$-9.64
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
375 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-60.00
- NO
Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 15?
48 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?
40 shares @ 55.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-22.07
- YES
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?
20 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-12.60
- YES
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?
20 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.40
- YES
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?
20 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.88
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
4 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 4
- Avg trade size
- $5.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 15, 17:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.