Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.1K

Realised

$-121.92

Win rate

200 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Dogecoin Up or Down - July 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
466 shares @ 20.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-97.24
UP
XRP Up or Down - July 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET
436 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
CONOR MCGREGOR
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
323 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
UP
Hyperliquid Up or Down - July 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
307 shares @ 25.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-77.16
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
275 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
UP
Solana Up or Down - July 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET
220 shares @ 11.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00
DOWN
Dogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET
209 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-9.60
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET
200 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
UP
XRP Up or Down - July 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
198 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYWill Spain win on 2026-07-19?$86.10Jul 19, 19:17 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-19?$10.43Jul 19, 19:17 UTC
TRADEBUYArgentina leading at halftime?$5.23Jul 19, 19:16 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$5.32Jul 17, 21:07 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$3.21Jul 17, 21:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$3.18Jul 17, 21:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$3.20Jul 17, 21:06 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$3.65Jul 17, 21:06 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$4.73Jul 17, 21:05 UTC
TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - July 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$5.47Jul 17, 21:05 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$3.19Jul 17, 21:05 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$3.17Jul 17, 21:05 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$3.20Jul 17, 21:04 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$3.19Jul 17, 21:04 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$3.19Jul 17, 21:04 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$5.35Jul 17, 21:02 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$5.36Jul 17, 21:02 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$5.36Jul 17, 21:02 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$5.33Jul 17, 21:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$5.32Jul 17, 21:01 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

55/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

1% win rate over 200 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

200 closed markets, 1% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry11 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk28 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 48
Avg trade size: $8.00
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 10, 16:19 UTC
Last active: Jul 19, 19:17 UTC
Win rate sample: 200 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 10:42:02 UTC·src:Polymarket Data