Posh-Position
0xf8cf8644f6cbbe682df2b90c23589934093e4bc8
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
78
Open notional
$86.57
Total PnL
$-14.48
Realised
$1.95
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 78- NO
Will Bernie Sanders be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?
20 shares @ 98.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$20.00
$0.26
- NO
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
6 shares @ 16.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$6.25
$5.25
- NO
Péter Magyar sextape released by March 31
3 shares @ 67.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.96
$0.96
- NO
Will the US not strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 34.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.94
$1.94
- NO
Will Russia enter Khatnie by March 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.50
$0.50
- NO
Bitmine sells any Ethereum in 2026?
3 shares @ 71.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.49
$0.49
- NO
Will the US strike 2 countries in February 2026?
2 shares @ 45.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$2.22
$1.22
- NO
Martin Nowak out as Harvard professor by February 28?
2 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$2.20
$0.20
- NO
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?
2 shares @ 58.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.72
$0.72
- NO
Will Kanye tweet again by February 28?
2 shares @ 65.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$1.54
$0.54
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?$0.25Feb 28, 06:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bernie Sanders be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?$19.74Feb 28, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLHillary Clinton charged by March 31?$1.03Feb 27, 23:58 UTC
- TRADESELLEU dissolves before 2027?$1.01Feb 27, 23:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?$1.85Feb 27, 23:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?$1.89Feb 27, 23:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?$2.00Feb 27, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?$1.00Feb 26, 07:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?$1.00Feb 25, 23:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?$1.00Feb 25, 23:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?$1.00Feb 25, 23:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Woody Allen be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?$19.88Feb 25, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Woody Allen be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?$18.60Feb 24, 20:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$1.03Feb 24, 19:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?$1.12Feb 24, 19:35 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?$1.16Feb 24, 19:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?$5.23Feb 24, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 21?$1.00Feb 20, 23:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?$1.00Feb 20, 23:40 UTC
- REDEEMOdds of US strikes Iran in February over 50% by Feb 13?$1.04Feb 20, 23:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $2.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 15, 09:05 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 28, 06:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.