Sudden-Constraint
0xf8e7f542422ec43b919c377675d9fd703f897330
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.5K
Realised
$-20.96
Win rate
61%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET
811 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-29.99
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET
599 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-29.97
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET
359 shares @ 11.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-39.89
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET
322 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-29.07
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET
321 shares @ 15.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-48.55
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
274 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-14.98
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET
250 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
249 shares @ 10.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-26.41
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
240 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-14.98
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$0.00Jul 19, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$5.22Jul 19, 19:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$5.23Jul 19, 19:06 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$5.44Jul 19, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$5.22Jul 19, 19:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET$0.00Jul 19, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET$5.28Jul 19, 17:41 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$5.96Jul 19, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$5.25Jul 19, 17:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$5.21Jul 19, 17:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$2.56Jul 19, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$5.27Jul 19, 17:27 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$6.35Jul 19, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$5.27Jul 19, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$0.00Jul 19, 17:17 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$19.15Jul 19, 17:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$5.26Jul 19, 17:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$5.16Jul 19, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$5.17Jul 19, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET$5.25Jul 19, 17:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
61% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $7.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 13, 10:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 19:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.