Multicolored-Culvert
0xf8f4e8dc607d559000d820ca325fbea13f21ffad
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$39.10
Total PnL
$-3.69
Realised
$14.52
Win rate
50%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?
23 shares @ 56.2¢·now 53.4¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$12.28
$-0.64
- YES
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?
23 shares @ 33.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$6.79
$-0.81
- YES
Will Nasiphi Moya be the next mayor of Tshwane?
23 shares @ 27.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Nov 5, 2026$5.17
$-1.03
- NO
Will Mamdani say "Safe" or "Safer" or "Safety" during his announcement?
23 shares @ 29.0¢·now 16.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.68
$-2.99
- NO
Will the USS Abraham Lincoln depart CENTCOM by September 30, 2026?
20 shares @ 14.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.90
$0.10
- YES
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
3 shares @ 47.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$2.83
$1.42
- NO
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in August?
3 shares @ 59.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$2.69
$0.78
- YES
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?
3 shares @ 40.5¢·now 53.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$1.80
$0.44
- YES
Will Mikael Strandman be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Värmland?
23 shares @ 10.0¢·now 1.7¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$0.38
$-1.92
- YES
Will Jerry Moran vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
3 shares @ 22.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.30
$-0.33
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the USS Abraham Lincoln depart CENTCOM by September 30, 2026?$2.80Aug 19, 22:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Widow's Bay" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?$17.77Aug 19, 20:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran target Qatar by September 15, 2026?$1.38Aug 19, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Widow's Bay" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?$29.89Aug 19, 19:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?$3.68Aug 19, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?$4.37Aug 19, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Qatar by September 15, 2026?$3.91Aug 19, 17:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ken Calvert win the CA-40 House seat?$4.36Aug 19, 16:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ken Calvert win the CA-40 House seat?$6.06Aug 19, 16:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 7.9 or below?$9.06Aug 19, 07:21 UTC
- REWARD$9.11Aug 19, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nasiphi Moya be the next mayor of Tshwane?$6.21Aug 18, 22:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 7.9 or below?$4.21Aug 18, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 7.9 or below?$4.29Aug 18, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 7.9 or below?$8.66Aug 18, 22:01 UTC
- TRADESELLNo change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?$3.45Aug 18, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mamdani say "Safe" or "Safer" or "Safety" during his announcement?$6.67Aug 18, 19:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?$9.20Aug 18, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?$10.40Aug 18, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?$3.91Aug 18, 15:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $6.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 16, 16:08 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 22:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.