Wallet digest

active

Activity score

49/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-12.0K

Realised

$108.09

Win rate

47%

17 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

SOLANA SIERRA
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng
300 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-90.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
300 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-152.96
KARMINE CORP
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner
268 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-61.65
JAPAN
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance
202 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-103.00
BIANCA ANDREESCU
Wimbledon WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Shuai Zhang
200 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-36.00
TEAM LIQUID
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner
200 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-18.00
HAMAD MEDJEDOVIC
Wimbledon ATP: Hamad Medjedovic vs Sebastian Ofner
200 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-36.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET
200 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
200 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026
$0.00
$-21.95
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
198 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025
$0.00
$-97.02

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$12.16Jul 9, 21:10 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$12.16Jul 9, 21:10 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$6.84Jul 1, 00:45 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$0.00Jun 30, 21:13 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$158.21Jun 30, 21:09 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$39.65Jun 30, 21:09 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$20.16Jun 30, 21:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$7.30Jun 30, 21:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$1.74Jun 30, 21:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$3.65Jun 30, 21:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$3.65Jun 30, 21:03 UTC
TRADESELLWimbledon WTA: Serena Williams vs Maya Joint$433.21Jun 30, 20:58 UTC
TRADEBUYWimbledon WTA: Serena Williams vs Maya Joint$127.21Jun 30, 20:46 UTC
TRADEBUYWimbledon WTA: Serena Williams vs Maya Joint$64.61Jun 30, 20:46 UTC
TRADEBUYWimbledon WTA: Serena Williams vs Maya Joint$113.24Jun 30, 20:46 UTC
TRADEBUYWimbledon WTA: Serena Williams vs Maya Joint$80.91Jun 30, 20:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$44.72Jun 30, 20:43 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$120.02Jun 30, 20:41 UTC
TRADESELLWimbledon WTA: Serena Williams vs Maya Joint$108.90Jun 30, 20:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$58.49Jun 30, 20:39 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

43/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

47% win rate over 17 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity45 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence57 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry60 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk43 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 45
Avg trade size: $39.94
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 30, 20:25 UTC
Last active: Jul 9, 21:10 UTC
Win rate sample: 17 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 03:04:53 UTC·src:Polymarket Data