Wallet digest

active

Activity score

59/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-4.1K

Realised

$36.07

Win rate

73%

22 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
2500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
2500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
1098 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-7.84
UP
Ethereum Up or Down on May 23?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
791 shares @ 22.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026
$0.00
$-174.97
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
600 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET
519 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026
$0.00
$-18.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
500 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
409 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$1.02Jul 21, 10:19 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$0.70Jul 21, 10:18 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$1.05Jul 21, 10:17 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$1.04Jul 21, 10:15 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$1.12Jul 21, 10:15 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$1.03Jul 21, 10:15 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$1.06Jul 21, 10:13 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$3.64Jul 21, 10:10 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$1.02Jul 21, 10:09 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$1.04Jul 21, 10:08 UTC
TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - July 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$1.09Jul 21, 10:08 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$1.02Jul 21, 10:07 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$1.41Jul 21, 10:07 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$1.03Jul 21, 10:05 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$1.29Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$0.00Jul 20, 23:51 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$0.00Jul 20, 23:50 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$1.02Jul 20, 23:48 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$1.02Jul 20, 23:48 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$1.02Jul 20, 23:48 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

46/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

73% win rate over 22 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity71 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence73 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry34 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk39 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 46
Avg trade size: $10.95
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 20, 23:27 UTC
Last active: Jul 21, 10:19 UTC
Win rate sample: 22 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 19:37:59 UTC·src:Polymarket Data