0xf9642f467166919450b57d73172d81bf7f0b6e97
0xf9642f467166919450b57d73172d81bf7f0b6e97
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$-336.14
Win rate
0%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 9?
9806 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-150.38
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
8333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?
2743 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 13?
2500 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-65.00
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
2250 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-135.00
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)?
1818 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)?
1645 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
1260 shares @ 9.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-117.59
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)?
1139 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 9?
714 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the US next strike Iran during the week of February 22-28, 2026 (ET)?$112.77Feb 28, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US next strike Iran during the week of February 15-21, 2026 (ET)?$50.00Feb 19, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US next strike Iran during the week of February 15-21, 2026 (ET)?$20.00Feb 18, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US next strike Iran during the week of February 22-28, 2026 (ET)?$20.00Feb 18, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?$0.76Feb 18, 06:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)?$4.22Feb 18, 06:10 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$37.65Feb 18, 06:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?$73.64Feb 17, 02:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)?$11.76Feb 17, 02:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?$0.00Feb 17, 02:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US strike Iran next?$0.00Feb 17, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)?$15.00Feb 12, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)?$15.00Feb 12, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?$20.00Feb 12, 16:48 UTC
- TRADESELLOdds of US strikes Iran in February over 50% by Feb 13?$12.35Feb 12, 16:41 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?$34.47Feb 12, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US strike Iran next?$50.00Feb 11, 03:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYOdds of US strikes Iran in February over 50% by Feb 13?$40.00Feb 11, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?$90.00Feb 11, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)?$20.00Feb 11, 02:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $29.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 23, 23:54 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 28, 07:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.