Awful-Gift
0xf989bd9c62b1eae2c388515fcc766527a8b147cc
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
51
Open notional
$33.0K
Total PnL
$-64.4K
Realised
$-1.5K
Win rate
0%
38 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 51- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
14487 shares @ 82.8¢·now 96.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.0K
$2.0K
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
6809 shares @ 73.4¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.4K
$1.4K
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
11037 shares @ 45.3¢·now 26.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.9K
$-2.1K
- NO
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
2434 shares @ 82.2¢·now 92.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$2.3K
$251.22
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
3704 shares @ 54.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.9K
$-55.55
- NO
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
1464 shares @ 68.3¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.3K
$339.73
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
5779 shares @ 8.6¢·now 22.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.3K
$826.25
- NO
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
2041 shares @ 49.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.3K
$295.92
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
1333 shares @ 75.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$233.43
- YES
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
322 shares @ 6.2¢·now 74.6¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$240.00
$220.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.29Aug 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.29Aug 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.29Aug 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.28Aug 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.27Aug 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.27Aug 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.27Aug 9, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.27Aug 8, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.28Aug 7, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.29Aug 6, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.29Aug 5, 02:31 UTC
- YIELD$0.29Aug 4, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.29Aug 3, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.29Aug 2, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.29Aug 1, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.28Jul 31, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.28Jul 30, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.28Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.28Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.28Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 38 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
15 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
38 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 15
- Avg trade size
- $373.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 15, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 38 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.