Masculine-Recipient
0xf9ad87491077d551f0447045391a2fa82bacf244
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
81
Open notional
$0.07
Total PnL
$-680.77
Realised
$-3.54
Win rate
5%
57 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 81- NO
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 19?
70 shares @ 17.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$0.04
$-12.26
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 19?
35 shares @ 57.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$0.02
$-19.98
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 19?
20 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$0.01
$-7.39
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 19?
11 shares @ 25.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$0.01
$-2.78
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 17?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on May 22?
1330 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.33
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 30?
667 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.67
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 31?
490 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 30?
210 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 15?
202 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.98
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 19?$6.84Aug 19, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 19?$2.77Aug 19, 20:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 19?$2.92Aug 19, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 19?$20.42Aug 19, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 19?$7.40Aug 19, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 19?$1.96Aug 19, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 19?$0.90Aug 19, 17:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 18?$55.91Aug 18, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 18?$41.07Aug 18, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 18?$4.87Aug 18, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 12?$1.04Aug 12, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 7?$1.22Jul 7, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 7?$0.32Jul 7, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 7?$0.37Jul 7, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 6?$36.40Jul 6, 21:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 4?$3.48Jul 4, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 4?$0.82Jul 4, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 4?$1.18Jul 4, 13:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on July 4?$16.98Jul 4, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on July 4?$6.47Jul 4, 07:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
5% win rate over 57 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
57 closed markets, 5% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $9.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 08:31 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 20:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 57 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.