Harmful-Amenity
0xf9b0e9186f3abe292a2519b555938f542c70a817
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
9
Open notional
$2.2K
Total PnL
$142.49
Realised
$70.61
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will at least 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?
1645 shares @ 96.1¢·now 99.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.6K
$51.27
- NO
Will at least 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?
268 shares @ 93.6¢·now 98.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$262.47
$12.05
- NO
Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?
217 shares @ 98.3¢·now 99.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$216.09
$3.21
- NO
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?
55 shares @ 53.1¢·now 79.5¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$43.86
$14.55
- YES
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23?
69 shares @ 37.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$39.67
$14.14
- YES
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 1.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$10.50
$0.50
- YES
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 15, 2026?
616 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$3.08
$0.15
- YES
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?
40 shares @ 1.2¢·now 2.4¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$0.95
$0.48
- NO
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?
75 shares @ 32.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$0.00
$-24.47
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?$5.13Aug 16, 09:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?$10.00Aug 16, 08:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?$15.20Aug 16, 07:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?$7.20Aug 16, 07:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?$8.00Aug 16, 07:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?$2.00Aug 16, 07:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?$2.00Aug 16, 07:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?$2.06Aug 16, 06:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?$8.00Aug 16, 03:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?$8.00Aug 16, 03:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?$24.35Aug 16, 03:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?$32.47Aug 16, 03:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Houthis successfully target shipping on August 15, 2026?$0.20Aug 16, 03:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Houthis successfully target shipping on August 15, 2026?$1.25Aug 16, 03:27 UTC
- REWARD$4.52Aug 16, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?$8.00Aug 15, 22:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?$2.02Aug 15, 20:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?$4.79Aug 15, 20:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?$8.00Aug 15, 18:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?$48.00Aug 15, 18:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $9.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 14, 17:05 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 09:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.