Natural-Hurdle
0xf9d3195df1903a37e11085c826dc596596b7e878
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$7.71
Total PnL
$-46.18
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?
4 shares @ 97.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$4.31
$0.11
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
2 shares @ 97.9¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$2.24
$0.04
- YES
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?
1 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$1.17
$0.06
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7AM ET
2550 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-18.43
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9AM ET
1264 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-22.55
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
825 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.30
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7PM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?
2 shares @ 69.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?$1.11May 24, 02:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?$2.20May 24, 02:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?$4.20May 24, 02:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$2.47May 24, 02:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?$1.20Apr 16, 00:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?$2.56Apr 16, 00:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March?$3.50Apr 16, 00:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$2.30Apr 16, 00:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9AM ET$0.20Apr 15, 13:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9AM ET$1.00Apr 15, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9AM ET$1.34Apr 15, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9AM ET$0.03Apr 15, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9AM ET$0.06Apr 15, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9AM ET$0.77Apr 15, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9AM ET$0.03Apr 15, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9AM ET$1.22Apr 15, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9AM ET$0.03Apr 15, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9AM ET$0.15Apr 15, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9AM ET$0.15Apr 15, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9AM ET$0.08Apr 15, 13:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $0.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 15, 11:52 UTC
- Last active
- May 24, 02:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.