Wallet digest

active

Activity score

33/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

189

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-888.31

Realised

$-21.11

Win rate

179 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 189

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
2000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET
1247 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026
$0.00
$-18.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET
610 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026
$0.00
$-6.04
UP
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
417 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
397 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
260 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET$4.63Jul 17, 17:52 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET$1.98Jul 17, 17:50 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET$2.05Jul 17, 17:49 UTC
TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - July 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET$2.52Jul 17, 17:48 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET$2.06Jul 17, 17:46 UTC
TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - July 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$2.50Jul 17, 17:37 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$3.18Jul 17, 17:36 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$1.04Jul 17, 17:31 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 14, 10AM ET$3.22Jul 14, 14:50 UTC
TRADESELLBNB Up or Down - July 14, 10AM ET$0.75Jul 14, 14:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 14, 10AM ET$1.05Jul 14, 14:36 UTC
TRADESELLBNB Up or Down - July 14, 10AM ET$2.45Jul 14, 14:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 14, 10AM ET$2.62Jul 14, 14:35 UTC
TRADESELLBNB Up or Down - July 14, 10AM ET$1.09Jul 14, 14:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 14, 10AM ET$1.03Jul 14, 14:33 UTC
TRADESELLBNB Up or Down - July 14, 10AM ET$2.07Jul 14, 14:33 UTC
TRADESELLBNB Up or Down - July 14, 10AM ET$1.56Jul 14, 14:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 14, 10AM ET$1.77Jul 14, 14:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 14, 10AM ET$2.07Jul 14, 14:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$2.13Jul 14, 14:12 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

59/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

7% win rate over 179 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

179 closed markets, 7% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry36 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk24 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 48
Avg trade size: $2.02
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 4, 12:16 UTC
Last active: Jul 17, 17:52 UTC
Win rate sample: 179 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 16:57:15 UTC·src:Polymarket Data