Half-Path
0xf9f2fadb03a828f3024227034283e638bb73771f
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$4.4K
Total PnL
$-4.6K
Realised
$-833.90
Win rate
6%
70 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on August 22?
2245 shares @ 95.9¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$2.1K
$-10.06
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on August 21?
945 shares @ 70.7¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$943.86
$275.47
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in San Francisco be 49°F or below on August 21?
130 shares @ 88.8¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$129.54
$14.15
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Houston be 71°F or below on August 21?
125 shares @ 88.4¢·now 99.3¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$124.13
$13.63
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in San Francisco be between 50-51°F on August 21?
111 shares @ 95.8¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$110.17
$3.90
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Panama City be 21°C or below on August 21?
112 shares @ 95.9¢·now 98.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$109.76
$2.40
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Toronto be 9°C or below on August 21?
105 shares @ 95.7¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$104.32
$3.82
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on August 21?
105 shares @ 95.7¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$101.33
$0.82
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C or higher on August 22?
80 shares @ 97.5¢·now 96.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$76.80
$-1.20
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Guangzhou be 22°C or below on August 21?
70 shares @ 84.3¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$69.55
$10.54
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on August 21?$3.12Aug 20, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on August 21?$4.90Aug 20, 20:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on August 21?$5.00Aug 20, 20:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Lucknow be 22°C or below on August 21?$0.10Aug 20, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on August 21?$4.90Aug 20, 20:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on August 21?$5.00Aug 20, 20:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Busan be 20°C or below on August 21?$0.10Aug 20, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Busan be 30°C or higher on August 22?$4.90Aug 20, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Busan be 20°C or below on August 21?$7.13Aug 20, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on August 21?$9.81Aug 20, 20:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 20?$10.00Aug 20, 20:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on August 20?$10.00Aug 20, 20:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 20?$0.06Aug 20, 19:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 20?$0.17Aug 20, 19:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C or below on August 21?$0.10Aug 20, 19:24 UTC
- SPLITWill the lowest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C or higher on August 22?$5.00Aug 20, 19:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C or higher on August 22?$4.90Aug 20, 19:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in San Francisco be 49°F or below on August 21?$0.01Aug 20, 19:21 UTC
- SPLITWill the lowest temperature in San Francisco be 49°F or below on August 21?$20.00Aug 20, 19:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Taipei be 21°C or below on August 21?$0.10Aug 20, 19:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
61/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
6% win rate over 70 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
70 closed markets, 6% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $6.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 20, 19:10 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 20:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 70 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.