Wallet digest

active

Activity score

31/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.3K

Realised

$-326.48

Win rate

37 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 41

TEAM HERETICS
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs
408 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
TEAM HERETICS
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs
196 shares @ 51.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
KNICKS
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)
143 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026
$0.00
$-50.00
GIANTX
Valorant: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega
111 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
OVER
Games Total: O/U 2.5
102 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026
$0.00
$-50.00
YES
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-26?
100 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
FUT ESPORTS
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs
90 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026
$0.00
$-49.49
CZECHIA
Spread: Czechia (-1.5)
73 shares @ 13.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
NRG
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage
67 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026
$0.00
$-40.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
44 shares @ 55.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026
$0.00
$-24.14

Recent activity

TRADEBUYSpread: Spain (-2.5)$8.04Jun 15, 03:15 UTC
TRADEBUYNetherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?$10.23Jun 14, 19:46 UTC
REDEEMSpread: Germany (-3.5)$17.65Jun 14, 19:31 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Germany (-3.5)$9.13Jun 14, 13:08 UTC
TRADEBUYValorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs$101.47Jun 14, 07:45 UTC
REDEEMKnicks vs. Spurs$111.11Jun 14, 03:48 UTC
TRADEBUYValorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs$50.16Jun 13, 04:38 UTC
REDEEMCanada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5$50.00Jun 12, 21:29 UTC
TRADEBUYCanada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5$29.37Jun 12, 18:52 UTC
TRADEBUYValorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs$203.06Jun 12, 15:35 UTC
TRADEBUYGames Total: O/U 2.5$50.76Jun 12, 05:01 UTC
TRADEBUYKnicks vs. Spurs$40.77Jun 12, 04:54 UTC
TRADESELLExact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa?$74.91Jun 11, 21:05 UTC
TRADESELLSpread: Mexico (-1.5)$99.90Jun 11, 21:05 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa?$25.50Jun 11, 19:29 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Czechia (-1.5)$10.26Jun 11, 18:47 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Mexico (-1.5)$40.72Jun 11, 03:58 UTC
TRADESELLSpurs vs. Knicks$82.47Jun 11, 03:44 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Knicks (-6.5)$50.97Jun 10, 20:35 UTC
TRADESELLValorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage$131.96Jun 10, 20:34 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

66/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

3% win rate over 37 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

37 closed markets, 3% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry93 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk33 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 44
Avg trade size: $41.50
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Mar 29, 05:39 UTC
Last active: Jun 15, 03:15 UTC
Win rate sample: 37 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 00:07:54 UTC·src:Polymarket Data