Alarming-Alto
0xfa8cbc8ea1d02e5ce5df2948ed5c3ec1591d9169
Wallet digest
Activity score
33/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
121
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-7.0K
Realised
$-443.65
Win rate
7%
118 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 121- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET
1000 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$0.00
$-249.99
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 12?
919 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-9.12
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET
905 shares @ 22.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET
694 shares @ 43.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$0.00
$-299.92
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 7?
566 shares @ 11.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$0.00
$-63.05
- FRANCE
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
511 shares @ 58.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-300.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C or below on August 9?
480 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$0.00
$-32.76
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET
467 shares @ 10.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 28?
465 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-39.61
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 31?
417 shares @ 25.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-107.97
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 13?$120.57Aug 13, 15:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 13?$92.73Aug 13, 05:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 10?$324.72Aug 10, 15:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 10?$0.77Aug 10, 11:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 10?$7.00Aug 10, 10:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 10?$2.77Aug 10, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 10?$2.85Aug 10, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 10?$7.59Aug 10, 10:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on August 10?$10.35Aug 10, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on August 10?$13.82Aug 10, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 10?$534.15Aug 10, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 10?$473.55Aug 10, 07:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 10?$86.97Aug 10, 07:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 10?$100.18Aug 10, 07:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 9?$106.33Aug 10, 07:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 9?$70.46Aug 10, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 10?$29.48Aug 10, 03:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 10?$29.96Aug 10, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 10?$3.50Aug 10, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 10?$317.52Aug 10, 03:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
7% win rate over 118 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
118 closed markets, 7% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $79.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 9, 02:00 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 15:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 118 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.