0xfa956ba0ddd2bade554759d2a4d5d40a055f8718
0xfa956ba0ddd2bade554759d2a4d5d40a055f8718
Wallet digest
Activity score
99/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$20.70
Total PnL
$16.0K
Realised
$16.0K
Win rate
64%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will income taxes rise for the highest tax bracket in 2022?
5 shares @ 69.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2022$4.57
$1.41
- NO
Will Ukraine be a member state of the European Union by July 31, 2022?
5 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2022$4.51
$0.23
- NO
Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on September 1, 2022?
4 shares @ 95.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2022$4.48
$0.19
- NO
[Single Market] Will Joe Biden win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
3 shares @ 59.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2024$3.33
$1.36
- YES
Will ApeCoin (APE) reach $20 by May 4?
2 shares @ 14.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 4, 2022$2.15
$1.84
- NO
Will SpaceX's Starship successfully reach outer space by June 30, 2022?
2 shares @ 47.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2022$1.67
$0.88
- YES
Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on January 6, 2023?
27 shares @ 7.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2023$0.00
$-1.97
- YES
Will Ukraine be a member state of the European Union by July 31, 2022?
22 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2022$0.00
$-1.54
- YES
Will Russia have its UNSC permanent member status stripped by April 30, 2022?
22 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2022$0.00
$-1.37
- YES
[From Nate Silver] Will there be a federal mask requirement on US domestic flights on November 8, 2022?
3 shares @ 20.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 8, 2022$0.00
$-0.60
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
64% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.