Defiant-Offering
0xfa9f3e5baab9368157cb5f4c3351a0b69ecb1981
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-34.6K
Realised
$948.67
Win rate
67%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025?
75000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-150.00
- YES
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
27830 shares @ 82.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-22.9K
- YES
Will the US not strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
11785 shares @ 63.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-7.5K
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
3452 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-45.90
- YES
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election?
3204 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-149.98
- YES
Government shutdown on Saturday?
3105 shares @ 64.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.0K
- YES
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
2849 shares @ 11.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-328.36
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
2379 shares @ 8.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-207.97
- NO
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
2349 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-328.11
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
2349 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-20.91
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Mar 20, 00:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on IPO day?$0.07Mar 19, 03:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Discord’s market cap be between $25B and $30B at market close on IPO day?$0.11Mar 19, 03:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day?$0.18Mar 19, 03:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO day?$0.26Mar 19, 03:48 UTC
- TRADESELL2026 Balance of Power: Other$1.30Mar 19, 03:48 UTC
- TRADESELL2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House$2.17Mar 19, 03:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?$5.99Mar 19, 03:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?$28.08Mar 19, 03:47 UTC
- TRADESELL2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House$65.23Mar 19, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELL2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House$147.85Mar 19, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELL2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$213.07Mar 19, 03:46 UTC
- REDEEMFed rate cut by March 2026 meeting?$347.59Mar 19, 03:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$7.3KMar 19, 03:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Mar 19, 01:02 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Mar 18, 01:03 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Mar 17, 01:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Mar 16, 01:01 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Mar 15, 00:43 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Mar 14, 00:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 11
- Avg trade size
- $42.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 23, 00:37 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 20, 00:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".